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News Sep 10, 2015 - 9:12:16 AM


QU Poll: Sanders 41 to Clinton 40 in Iowa dem caucus

By Quinnipiac University





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In a come-from-behind rally, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is the choice of 41 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 40 percent picking former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 12 percent backing Vice President Joseph Biden, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to results of a July 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Clinton at 52 percent, with 33 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Biden.

Today, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley gets 3 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 3 percent undecided.

There is a wide gender gap among Democrats today as Sanders leads Clinton 49 – 28 percent among men, with 16 percent for Biden, while Clinton leads Sanders 49 – 35 percent among women, with 9 percent for Biden.

Sanders and Biden have a higher net favorability rating than Clinton and higher ratings for honesty and empathy. Clinton has the best scores for leadership and temperament to handle an international crisis.

“Sen. Bernie Sanders has become the Eugene McCarthy of 2016,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “He is the candidate of the Democratic left, against his own party’s bosses and their prized presidential candidate, Secretary Hillary Clinton.

“Sanders has seized the momentum by offering a message more in line with disproportionately liberal primary and caucus voters.”

“But unlike the late Sen. McCarthy, who came on strong just before the 1968 primaries, Sen. Sanders has seized the momentum, five months before voting begins in Iowa. History will eventually tell us whether he has made such a large move too soon,” Brown added.

“Although Vice President Joseph Biden received only 12 percent of the vote in this poll of likely Democratic Caucus-goers, he still may be a winner in the zero-sum game of presidential primary politics because it further increases questions about Clinton’s electability.”

Clinton has a 76 – 20 percent favorability rating among likely Democratic Caucus participants, as these voters say 64 – 30 percent that she is honest and trustworthy, and 78 – 18 percent that she cares about their needs and problems. She has strong leadership qualities, voters say 92 – 7 percent, and the right temperament and personality to handle an international crisis, voters say 89 – 9 percent.

Sanders gets a 78 – 6 percent favorability rating and likely Democratic Caucus-goers say 86 – 4 percent that he is honest and trustworthy, and 85 – 5 percent that he cares about their needs and problems. Voters say 76 – 9 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 65 – 15 percent that he has the right temperament and personality to handle an international crisis.

Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants give Biden a 79 – 9 percent favorability rating. He is honest and trustworthy, voters say 91 – 5 percent, and cares about their needs and problems, voters say 84 – 11 percent. He has strong leadership qualities, voters say 81 – 14 percent and the right temperament and personality for an international crisis, voters say 81 – 13 percent.

Iowa Democrats support the nuclear pact with Iran 66 – 19 percent and say 68 – 17 percent that the agreement will make the world safer.

From August 27 – September 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 832 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.




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